IPSG Conference "2013 Italian general elections: Italian politics at the crossroads?"

On Friday 17 January, the Italian Politics Specialist Group organised a 1-day conference focussing on the results of the February 2013 election, and the effects these have had on the Italian Political system. The event attracted scholars and attendees from many UK and Italian universities, as well as members of Italian political parties in the UK, and practitioners.

Prof. Gainfranco Pasquino and Prof. Martin Bull 

The day started off with a great key-note address delivered by Prof. Gianfranco Pasquino. Quoting J.M. Keynes, the presentation opened with a deliberately controversial claim: "general elections are always dismal affairs". Drawing on this, Prof. Pasquino provded the audience with a compelling analysis of the most relevant data concerning the election and post-election scenario. Firstly, he argued that the February '13 election showed that the Italian society is highly fragmented, and the Italian political parties are particularly good at representing such fragmentation. Interestingly, drawing on primary data, he showed the audience that this trend is not a new one -- in fact, very little has changed between 1994 and 2013. Another interesting point raised by Prof. Pasquino concerns the number of new parties in the Italian political system. Between 1994 and 2013 a plethora of new parties have emerged, whilst many other have changed their name and/or structure -- so that, currently, the Northern League is the oldest party in Italy. On the whole, in 1993 the average age of the party system was 38.1, while in 2013 such average has dropped to 6.4. This shows the fragmentation and instability of the Italian political system in the post-tangentopoli era, and led Prof. Pasquino to develop a reflection on what it should take to overcome an instability that seems to be intrinsic to the logics and structures of Italian parties. In this sense, one of the key issues seems to concern what he defined the "partyness of governments", underlining how, especially in recent years, many Ministers do not have purely political expertise, resulting in the creation of governments made of non-party members -- i.e. inexperienced politicians who do not have neither the 'know-how' or the 'know-whom', as Pasquino put it, to deliver. Prof. Pasquino concluded his speech identifying two main consequences of the 2013 election: 1) Italy has now a "government of the Quirinale", which relies (and depends) on President Napolitano; 2) the system remains totally in flux, and is characterised by an unstable government with a PM (Letta) and three extra-parliamentary leaders: Grillo, Berlusconi and Renzi.

Audience & presenters

The day then continued with excellent papers being presented by some of the foremost experts in Italian politics.

The first panel (Political Parties and the Challenges ahead) looked at key topics such as:
1) the election of the new leader of the PD, through a paper presented by Prof. Fulvio Venturino and Dr Natascia Porellato;
2) the way in which the FiveStar MoVement is 'changing' now that it is in office, thanks to a paper co-authored by Dr Fabio Bordigno and Dr Luigi Ceccarini
3) primary elections within the PD, 5SM, and Left, Ecology, Freedom, with a paper co-authored by Marco Valbruzzi and Dr Natascia Porcellato

The second panel (Media & Campaigns) focussed on political communication strategies during the electoral campaign, and focussed on the role of entertainment media (paper by Dr Antonio Ciaglia and Dr Marco Mazzoni) and questions of issue ownership (paper by Dr Antonella Seddone and Dr Giuliano Bobba).

Dr Elisa Lello, Prof. Martin Bull and Dr Daniele Albertazzi

The third panel (Key Themes & Open Questions) looked at the way in which younger Italian perceive politic, thanks to a fascinating paper presented by Dr Elisa Lello. Then, Eva Garau presented a paper on the paradox of the rhetoric of immigration in Italy, and finally Prof. Martin Bull and Elisabetta Cassina-Wolff analysed in-depth the main issues surrounding the process of institutional and constitutional reforms in Italy.

The day came to a close with a thought-provoking round-table discussion on the future of Italy, focussing in particular at the short-term and long-term effects of 1) the reformation of Forza Italia: 2) the election of Renzi as the secretary of the PD. Prof. Guglielmo Meardi, Prof. Anna Cento-Bull, Prof. Gianfranco Pasquino and Prof. Martin Bull contributed to the debate with timely reflections.
Some of the main conclusions were: 1) that the reformation of Forza Italia is a way in which Berlusconi is trying to prolong his political life, and to 'mark his territory' -- showing former allies (and potential 'heirs' like Alfano) that he is still in the game. 2) that Renzi on the one hand is possibly one of the last hopes for the Italian left, and yet, quoting Prof. Pasquino he "does not know what he wants, he does not know what he thinks he wants, but he knows that he wants it now".

Round-table panellists.
From left to right:
Prof. Meardi, Prof. Cento-Bull, Dr Albertazzi, Prof. Pasquino and Prof. Bull

1 Day Conference: "2013 ITALIAN GENERAL ELECTION: ITALIAN POLITICS AT THE CROSSROADS?"

The Italian general election of February 2013 can fairly be described as a watershed event, resulting as it did in a political stalemate. With the country more or less divided into three equal segments among which there appeared to be no viable governing combination it was not until the end of April that a government could be formed, and then it was only thanks to the fact that the election’s aftermath coincided with the need to elect a new President of the Republic. The centre-left appeared to have won the election by a wafer-thin margin - but it had no Senate majority and, most importantly, it emerged in front only by virtue of the fact that the haemorrhage in its votes was slightly smaller than the haemorrhage of votes for the centre right. Support for the newly formed Five-star Movement (M5s), at its first general-election outing, exploded dramatically, to make it the largest single party. As a consequence of the outcome, neither of the logics on which government formation had been based in the ‘First’ and ‘Second Republics’, the consensual and the majoritarian respectively, was any longer available. If therefore, the election seemed to mark the end of an era, the one that appeared to be being ushered in pointed in the direction of a highly uncertain future.
Against this background, the University of Birmingham will host a one-day conference on 17 January 2014 focussing on the future of Italian politics after the general election of February 2013. 

You can follow the conference on Twitter using the hashtag #ItalianPolitics

CONFERENCE PROGRAMME (Including links to papers**):

9.30 – 9.40                 Welcome address (Arianna Giovannini)

9.40 – 10.40               Key-note address

                                   Gianfranco Pasquino (John Hopkins University, Bologna, Italy)

10.40 – 12.10             Session 1: Political Parties and the challenges ahead

·       A New Start?The Selection of the fifth Secretary of the Democratic Party – Fulvio Venturino & Natascia Porcellato (University of Cagliari)

·       After theElections: A Test for the Five Star Movement – Fabio Bordignon & Luigi Ceccarini (University of Urbino)

·       The Window onthe Secret Garden of Politics: MPs’ Primary Elections in the Democratic Party, Five Star Movement and Left Ecology Freedom – Marco Valbruzzi (EUI) & Natascia Porcellato (University of Cagliari)  **please note that this paper will be presented in Italian. An English version of the paper will be available to download ahead of the conference. 

12.15 – 13.15              Session 2: Campaigns & Media

·      Agenda’sDynamics in the Mainstream Media During the 2013 Electoral Campaign – Giuliano Bobba & Antonella Seddone (University of Turin)

·      New Forms of Media Partisanship? The 2013 Electoral Campaign from the Perspective of Entertainment Media – Marco Mazzoni (University of Perugia) & Antonio Ciaglia (SUM, Florence)

 14.30 – 16.30              Session 3: Key Themes & Open Questions

·      Do YoungerItalians Prefer ‘Technocratic’ Politics? An Interpretation of Young People’s Voting Behaviour – Elisa Lello (University of Urbino)

·      The Paradox ofthe Rhetoric on Immigration in Italy. From 2013 Electoral Manifestos to Lampedusa, via Kyenge – Eva Garau (University of Cagliari)

·      ‘Eye of theStorm’: the Italian 2013 Elections and Institutional Reform – Martin Bull (University of Salford)

·      Letta’sGovernment and Constitutional Reforms – Elisabetta Cassina Wolff (University of Oslo)

17.00 – 18.00              Round Table Discussion (Moderated by Daniele Albertazzi)

Gianfranco Pasquino (John Hopkins University, Bologna); Anna Cento Bull (University of Bath); Gugliemo Meardi (Warwick University); Martin Bull (University of Salford)

18.00 – 18.15              Concluding Reflections

                                    James L. Newell (University of Salford)

**   Please note that all the papers are works in progress, and should not be quoted for any purpose without the authors' permission.             

The election of Matteo Renzi as the leader of the PD might herald a ‘New Labour’ style revolution in Italy’s centre-left *

Matteo Renzi was elected as the new general secretary of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) in Italy. Arianna Giovannini and James L. Newell assess the implications of the election for the PD and the wider political landscape in the country. They note that Renzi has generally been portrayed as a similar figure to Tony Blair in the UK due to his youth and ‘reformer’ image. They argue however that Renzi’s most immediate challenge will be to win control over the Italian premiership from current prime Minister Enrico Letta.

On 8 December, the election of Matteo Renzi as general secretary of the centre-left Democratic Party (Partito Democratico, PD), Italy’s strongest political formation, was more a coronation of a leader whose succession had been certain, than a genuine victory. Everyone, including observers on this side of the Channel, expected it. Consequently, while until a few months ago very little attention was devoted to the election or to the candidates, all of a sudden the British media turned their spotlights on the presumed winner. Indeed, already on 7 December, the BBC and the Guardian published political profiles of Renzi, defining him, de facto, as the new leader of the centre left and without even mentioning his rivals.

In fact, Renzi won the contest – which was open not just open to party members but also to ordinary voters, making Italy a unique case in Europe – with 67.6 per cent of the vote, against 18.2 per cent and 14.2 per cent for his two rivals, Gianni Cuperlo and Giuseppe Civati, respectively.

Though Renzi had an absolute majority in every region, it was noticeable that his best results were all obtained in the four so-called red-belt regions of Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, Umbria and Marche. His lowest percentages all came from the South and islands. This can be interpreted as a reflection of his status as the “change candidate”. More than any other candidate, Renzi stood for a dismantling of the traditional factions and the power of party notables, and it is in the South that these have their greatest influence. 

Their power could be seen in the run-up to the elections where, to be admitted as a candidate, the aspiring general secretary had to win the votes of at least 15 per cent of PD party members and the same proportion in at least five regions, or be among the top three candidates and have at least five per cent of party votes. In these internal party ‘pre-elections’, Renzi had achieved 45.4 per cent, compared to Cuperlo’s 39.4 per cent and Civati’s 9.4 per cent. 

Who, then, is Matteo Renzi, and what does his election mean for Italian politics generally? Renzi is probably best known, in Italy and abroad, as the young charismatic mayor of Florence who earned himself the nickname, il rottamatore (or “the scrapper”) thanks to his insistence that the PD needed to undergo fundamental renewal based on a generational turnover among its leaders and principal spokespeople. In November 2012, he took 39.1 per cent of the vote in primary-elections to decide who would be the centre left’s candidate for the premiership in the general election of February 2013.

Although he failed to defeat the then PD general secretary, Pierluigi Bersani, he had clearly staked his claim to the succession. When Bersani managed to lose the general election – or, rather, failed to win, by getting only a wafer-thin majority – it became evident that the centre left needed a new leader, one with the necessary charisma to enable the PD to rise from its ashes. So when, in April, Bersani resigned over the issue of the formation of the post-election government, Renzi was ready to take up the challenge.

From this point of view it is interesting to note that the image of the new party secretary conveyed by Italian, British and European media has tended to revolve around a comparison with two controversial political personalities: Tony Blair and Silvio Berlusconi.

On the one hand, Renzi has been compared, rather appropriately, with Tony Blair of the 1994 New Labour revolution. Renzi is young, as Blair was at the time, with the appearance of a well-mannered schoolboy. He is ambitious, charismatic, a very good communicator and is liked by the media. Similar to Blair, Renzi has a precise objective: to change not only the image of the centre left, which has been incapable of winning for years, but also its ideology, inaugurating a “third way” designed to appeal to both sides of the left-right divide and to distance his party from the trade unions.

On the other hand, the Florentine mayor has also been compared to his – perhaps now former – principal competitor, Silvio Berlusconi. This is due to his charismatic speaking, but also to his way of communicating, which comes across as straightforward and seductive. Crucially, such style appeals to ordinary people out on the hustings and has a big impact on television. Besides, Renzi and Berlusconi share the same battle cry: the reduction of taxes.

The next generation of Italian politicians? 
Another feature political commentators have focused on is Renzi’s age. At 38, he is viewed as an almost bizarre exception in a country where politics is largely ‘grey and old’. So, between his gifts of charisma, his communication skills and his post-ideological ‘catch-all’ approach to politics, Renzi has been defined by many as the ‘necessary change’, the redeemer of all the ills of Italian politics, and a sort of ‘last hope’ not only for the PD and the centre left but for the country as a whole. In this sense, the election of Renzi as leader of the PD is likely to have a significant impact not only within the ranks of his party, but on the wider political landscape in Italy.

This was reflected in the turnout of the 8 December election, where 2,814,881 Italian residents and Italians living abroad came out to vote. In order to participate, voters had to be EU citizens with the right of residence in Italy. They also had to be willing to donate two euros and to make a declaration of support for the party and its programme. The turnout allayed fears that the time of year and the apparent certainty of the outcome would depress participation.

It seemed to support the view of Ezio Mauro, editor of the leading daily, la Repubblica, that, in the face of widespread anti-political sentiments, the election combined the demand for change with a surprising and comforting manifestation of faith in democracy and democratic processes. In fact, voter turnout was comparable with the 3,102,709 who had participated in the last such election, held in the warmer month of October in 2009, and the 2,802,382 who had participated in the second round of the centre-left primary of 2012, which had been open to a larger constituency of electors and whose outcome had been much less certain.

Second, it seems likely that the victory of Renzi will send shockwaves throughout the political system, bringing changes of political personnel, government and policy. He has given a voice to the demands for political renewal and has linked it to the idea of generational change. His election has coincided with the emergence of younger party leaders, such as the 43 year-old Angelino Alfano, on the centre right, and the 40 year-old Matteo Salvini, elected general secretary of the Northern League. In this respect, he has raised expectations for a significant turnover of the political class, with the likely result of a further marginalisation of the 77 year-old Berlusconi.

Third, the election of Renzi as the new leader of the PD means that the lifespan of the incumbent government – a centre-left/centre-right coalition under fellow PD spokesperson, the 47 year-old Enrico Letta – has probably been shortened. On the one hand, with minority support among PD members, Renzi, whose opinion-poll ratings currently far exceed those of all other party leaders, will almost certainly want to avoid jeopardising his popularity outside the party by being seen as responsible for an early government collapse. However, his credibility as an agent of change necessarily implies distancing himself from a government which by its very nature is driven by a constant search for compromise.

Furthermore, with the centre right in disarray, it is widely expected that Renzi will use this as an opportunity to push forward with his Blair-style policy revolution. Through policy measures such as tax cuts and restrictions on public-sector salaries, this may enable him to achieve what his British predecessor did, that is to extend his party’s appeal beyond its traditional basis.

All that being said, Renzi’s biggest challenge still lies ahead of him and revolves around his relationship with Enrico Letta. For the moment, the mayor of Florence has been elected general secretary of the PD, but he will not be the fully-fledged leader of the centre left as a whole until he achieves his ambition of becoming Prime Minister.

Ostensibly, Letta claims to support Renzi, but at the same time it is unrealistic to think that the incumbent premier will be willing simply to cede place to the new secretary without batting an eyelid. Seeing off Gianni Cuperlo and Giuseppe Civati has been relatively easy for Renzi, but the quiet, subtle and capable Enrico Letta belongs in another league. The real fight has yet to begin and it is the one that will see the Florentine mayor vying with Letta for the premiership.

  

* this article was originally published by the LSE EUROPP Blog. A shorter version of the article was also published in Italian by the SISP (Italian Political Science Association) Standing Group Candidate & Leader Selection